Pro-Independence and pro-Reunification

One of Mao Zedong's sayings my father used to echo to me is that "revolutionaries have their revolutionary theories while counter-revolutionaries have their theories to the contrary" (革命有革命的理论，反革命有反革命的理论). That is, people develop their own "theories" to achieve their own ends. In the case of Taiwan's Independence from China, the "theories" that are against or for TI serve as one of the best examples of contrasting and conflicting ideas.

People's Interpretation of Taiwan

Pro-I people have many reasons why they do not believe Taiwan is part of China. For example, some of them do not think Taiwan has ever been Chinese. Their argument is that: Manchurians are not Chinese and their ownership of Taiwan under the Qing Dynasty is that of annexation; and Taiwan was a Japanese asset when the Republic of China came into being in 1911. What about today's version of ROC on Taiwan? They think that it's just another foreign (Chinese) regime that won Taiwan as annexed territory from the defeated Japanese Empire in the WWII. They maintain that ROC is merely occupying Taiwan as "trustee on behalf of the Allied Powers." Such ideas represent an argument for a completely mutually exclusive relationship between Taiwan and China [the Mainland]. In this case, one of the targets they take aim at is the same as that of the Mainland: the Republic of China. Beijing, of course, does not recognize the legitimacy of the ROC that PRC thinks was replaced in 1949 when the People's Republic was created. However, one of the strongest arguments of the PRC has for its claim over Taiwan is the legitimacy of the Republic of China's ownership of the island. Indeed, the ROC provides every link that connects Taiwan to the rest of China and the PRC would be very sorry if the pro-I people actually abolish the ROC on the island.

Other pro-I people are not that extreme in that they simply argue that Taiwan is already an independent, sovereign state and its official name is the Republic of China. But, these people do not think it a big deal if Taiwan changes its official name to the Republic of Taiwan as long as the islanders see fit to do so.

However, for pro-R people, Taiwan has always been Chinese though the Netherlands and Japan occupied the island as colony for relatively short periods. According to them, Taiwan was formally incorporated into China as early as the Southern Song Dynasty (1127–1279) and later Chinese dynasties exercised control to different extent over the island. In the late days of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911), China was defeated in the 1894-1895 Sino-Japanese War and was forced to cede the island to Japan "in perpetuity" through the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki. However, later Chinese governments have never recognized the unfair treaty though they did not attempt to reclaim the northern territories lost to Russia through other unfair treaties. When the World War II ended with Japan being defeated and giving up all the territories under the Treaty of Shimonoseki, China was plunged into another disaster: a bloody 1945-49 Civil War between Kuomintang (KMT) and the Communist Party of China (CPC) forces. KMT lost control over the Mainland to the Communists and retreated to Taiwan. So, after a very short and chaotic 1945-49 reunification of the island with the rest of China, Taiwan again started to live under a different flag when the People's Republic was declared by the Communists on the Mainland in 1949. For more than 110 years since China lost the island to Japan in 1895, Taiwan remains isolated from the rest of China except for the short reunification after WWII. This may in part explain the rise of localization and Taiwanization on the island.

Pro-R people thus believe that the cross-Strait reality is just a leftover from the 1945-49 Civil War and much of a result of China's failed efforts to defend its territory against the Netherlands and Japan. They honestly think that Chinese people on both sides of the Strait should eventually reunify in one way or another and, if their hands are forced, they will reluctantly consider war as an end-all approach to reunification.

Is Taiwan part of China?

The answer to this question is of course yes, though pro-I people invoke "national self-determination" and "democracy" as reasons why Taiwanese people have a right to decide their own fate and why Taiwan should not be part of China. They maintain that Taiwan can choose independence despite of China's "essentially worthless historical claim" to Taiwan and a democratic, prosperous Taiwan should not be part of Communist China.

However, these reasons for the justification of Taiwan's independence from China are dubious at best. Taiwan has never been a nation or a country and, of course, the principle of national self-determination does not apply to the island. The principle was originally established to set African and Asian nations free from their Western colonizers. However, Taiwan is historically an integral part of China, rather than a Chinese colony in its modern sense, to which the principle might apply. To both pro-I and pro-R people, historical claims are not "essentially worthless" since they all invoke their own interpretations of the history on which to base their arguments.

"Democracy" is a better way of government than non-democracy. But, even if Taiwan is a democracy, it does not automatically justify the island's independence from China. For that matter, if the Taiwan-make government is of democracy in its true sense, people will have to redefine what on earth "democracy" is. For example, on the island, the corrupt, shameless and manipulative Chen Shui-bian succeeds in a series of Cultural Revolution-like struggles to stay on top of the Taiwan authorities though a large number of Taiwanese voters voice clearly their intent to "dispose" him.

"Democracy" and "independence" are two different things which do not automatically justify each other and should not be confused with each other. If "democracy" is a justifiable reason for Taiwan's independence, then many others can pass for good ones, for example, the Mainland's lack of an effective social security network for its residents, which denotes a larger picture in which the Mainlanders, on average, live a poorer life than the islanders on Taiwan.

Taiwan is indeed part of China, as historical records and present-day legal reality show, though the island has not yet been reunified with the rest of China. China's ownership of Taiwan dates back to several centuries ago. The island has remained under effective Chinese sovereign control except for relatively short periods of Dutch control and Japanese occupation under an unfair treaty. However, on December 9, 1941, the government of the Republic of China declared war on Japan and made an announcement that nullified all previous treaties with Japan, including the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki. This means that Taiwan has always been Chinese though it was occupied by the Japanese from 1895 to 1945. The Japanese gave up the island back to China after Japan was defeated in the WWII.

As shown by the Constitutions of the Republic of China under which the politics runs on the island and that of the People's Republic of China, Taiwan is not a separate identity outside of China (ROC or PRC).

Except for 24 tiny states that maintain diplomatic relationships with ROC, a regime that has constitutional claims to the whole of China, no governments of the countries around the world challenge China's claim to Taiwan and all of them respect China's "One-China" policy.

All the world standard-setting organizations treat Taiwan as part of China. For example, according to the U.N. General Assembly Resolution 2758, the People's Republic of China replaced the Republic of China to occupy the China seat and be the solely legitimate government representing China at the U.N. Also, no international organizations include Taiwan if their constitutions require its members to be countries.

Independence or reunification?

After historical and legal facts were laid down, the Taiwan issue boils down to China's willingness and capabilities to keep Taiwan within its territory. In its Anti-Secession Law, China clearly expressed its determination to crush any movements that lead to Taiwan's independence from China.

In the event of a war for China's reunification, the true enemies of the Chinese will be the U.S., Japan and possibly their allies instead of the pro-I islanders, who are no enemy of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) at all. The reason is simple. A reunified China will not be in the interest of the U.S., which, with the assistance of Japan and other allies, pursues supremacy over the rest of the world and sees China as a strategic competitor in East Asia. The U.S. and Japanese factors contributing to the movements of Taiwan's independence will play a key role in the reunification process, since pro-I people on the island have repeatedly expressed their eagerness and appealed to the two countries for their all-out support for their independence efforts and the two countries are just a little shy about defending Taiwan.

As the 1950-53 Korean War shows, China has the will and can afford the resources to defend its core interests against any foreign encroachment, no matter how powerful it might seem.

However, another China-U.S. war would be more damaging to both sides in a big way. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Chinese mainland achieved a gross domestic product (GDP) of 20.9407 trillion yuan, or approximately 2.8 trillion U.S. dollars, in 2006. If Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR are also included in calculating the mainland's economic output, China has the world's third largest GDP for the year of 2006. Such economic power, though not all of it being capable of turning into warring abilities, will assist China in mobilizing great resources for military campaigns in its efforts to frustrate any substantive pro-I movements.

The U.S. and Japan will have to reconsider the worthiness of their belligerent opposition to China's all-out efforts to reunify Taiwan once they fully understand China's hell-bent determination to do so. A war, if conducted between the world's No. 3 country on one side and the world's top two countries U.S. and Japan on the other side, would mean the end of what the world is today. Will the U.S. and Japan go to that lengths to defend Taiwan's foolhardy independence movements?

It is now increasingly unlikely that China will let the humiliating history repeat itself again. China lost parts of its northern territory to Tsar Russia. But, a rising China cannot bear to lose an island that means the lifeblood of the Chinese nation. And, it has made it clear that it will not lose it.